José Antonio Aruquipa 8/10/2002 The new president takes the he

Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, 72, a conservative, US-educated millionaire businessman, is the new president of Bolivia. This is the second time around for the leader of the traditional Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR), who was also president from 1993-97.

Sánchez de Lozada - known as "Goni" to supporters and "the gringo" to opponents who criticize his strong US accent - was elected by Congress on Aug. 4 for a five-year term, after a debate that lasted more than 27 hours, in the wake of elections marked by US interference and political dealmaking (LP, June 17 and July 15, 2002).

The president, who was inaugurated on Aug. 6, has given himself 90 days to turn around the recession that has battered the country for the past four years. He pledged to stimulate job creation, seek a "social pact" to quell protests and apply a "shock of confidence."

He must also decide whether natural gas from a US$6-billion project dubbed the "deal of the century" will be exported to Mexico and the United States through a Chilean or a Peruvian port.

The tasks may be tougher that they appear. For the first time in history, there is a radical bloc in Congress with a strong indigenous identity. Some of its members have predicted a short term for Sánchez de Lozada.

"I don’t think this government will last two years, because it’s weak and not representative," said Congressman Alejo Véliz, a campesino leader from western Bolivia who represents the New Republican Force (NFR).

Indigenous Congressman Félix Santos of the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party warned that the new president "will have to ask our permission even to go to the bathroom."

After winning a scant 22.46 percent of the popular vote in the June 30 elections, Sánchez de Lozada was forced to forge alliances in order to win in Congress. Under the Bolivian Constitution, if no candidate receives an absolute majority of 50 percent plus one vote, Congress must elect the president.

Evo Morales, head of MAS and a leader of coca growers in the Chapare region of the central department of Cochabamba, placed second in the June balloting, with 20.94 percent. He had campaigned on an anti-neoliberal and anti-US platform.

Morales partly attributed his strong showing to comments by US Ambassador Manuel Rocha, who four days before the elections warned Bolivians that if Morales won, the country would run the risk of losing US support.

On July 25, under pressure from the private sector to end the political uncertainty, Sánchez de Lozada signed an alliance called "Plan Bolivia" with his long-time political enemy, former President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-93), leader of the social democrat Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR).

The deal between the MNR and MIR was criticized as one more sign of Paz Zamora’s political opportunism by analysts who have urged the new president to put popular consensus ahead of congressional deals.

Sánchez de Lozada’s advisers are sensitive to public opinion. Guillermo Justiniano, one of the new president’s chief advisers, said that political alliances to ensure "good governance" are no longer a guarantee of good administration.

"Even if all the parties in Congress were aligned with us, it wouldn’t be enough," he said. "The state has lost legitimacy."

Forewarned by violent street protests in April and September 2000 that destabilized the government of former President Hugo Bánzer (1997-2001) (LP, April 24 and Oct. 9, 2000), Sánchez de Lozada has made solving the problem of "social exclusion" a priority.

The marginalization of a large sector of the Bolivian population is reflected in the "map of poverty" published by the government after the 2001 census. At least 58 percent of Bolivians live in poverty, lacking access to basic services such as potable water, sewers, electricity, education and health care. The figure rises to 91 percent in rural areas.

The UN Development Program’s most recent Human Development Report shows that 50 percent of Bolivians suffer from malnutrition. More than 300 factories have been forced to close because of the recession, and at least 1.2 million workers labor in the informal sector, without a steady income or benefits.

The economic outlook will only improve if the government reforms the "free-market model, which has collapsed," economist Pablo Ramos said. Sánchez de Lozada, however, has announced that his government will maintain neoliberal economic policies, with some state intervention.

Waldo Albarracín, president of the Permanent Assembly of Human Rights of Bolivia (APDHB), said he expects Bolivians to give the government only a two-month grace period. "After that, the violent protests will recur," he said.

That sentiment was echoed in Congress.

"We lost the vote today, but we won’t lose the battle," Santos said when Sánchez de Lozada was elected.

Of the 314 regular and substitute Senators and members of the lower house of Congress, 56 are indigenous. The majority attended the opening sessions of the legislature dressed in the traditional clothing of their regions.

Vice President Carlos D. Mesa, a journalist, who serves as president of Congress, greeted the legislators who he said represented "classes that were neglected for centuries." His comments received a cool response from Felipe Quispe, a campesino leader from the La Paz department who heads of the Pachakuti Indigenous Movement (MIP).

"The official parties are ignorant of our culture and politics. Confrontation is inevitable; no one is going to be submissive," said Quispe, who is known as "Mallku," the Aymara word for condor. "If we got rid of Bánzer, why can’t we do the same to this gringo?"

- From La Paz, José Antonio Aruquipa