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Electoral results predicted
Latinamerica Press
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Everything indicates that Evo Morales will be reelected for a third mandate during the first electoral round.

President Evo Morales, the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party candidate, leads the polls that anticipate the results of the October 12 elections, in which more than six million Bolivians will choose a president and vice-president, 157 assembly members and nine representatives to the parliaments of regional integration bodies for five-year terms.

In addition to Morales, four other candidates are running for the presidency. These candidates are Samuel Doria Medina of the Democratic Unity party,  former president Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002) of the Christian Democratic Party, Juan del Granado of the Movement Without Fear party and Fernando Vargas of the Green Party.

According to a September 16 poll from the consulting firm Equipos Mori, Morales has 54 percent of voter support, followed by Doria Medina with 14 percent and Quiroga with 7 percent. Del Granado has 3 percent of voter support and Vargas has 1 percent.

If the electoral results follow these trends, Morales would be reelected on the first round with more than 50 percent of votes. Electoral law also states that a candidate wins on the first round if the candidate receives more than 40 percent of votes and 10 points more than the second-place candidate.

The poll has shown that the governing MAS party has experienced considerable growth in historically opposing regions, such as Beni, Pando, Santa Cruz and Tarija. Moreover, MAS has consolidated its presence in Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, La Paz, Oruro and Potosí.

Control of the Legislature
Political scientist Hugo Moldiz said in statements to the press that the polls “still show a high percentage of undecided votes that reach 21 percent, a number which will be key for Morales, who hopes to receive more than 60 percent [of votes] and [key] for the second and third place [candidates] to reach close to 20 percent [of votes] which would allow them to have a strong presence in the Legislative Assembly”.

“These elections confirm Morales’s victory, and what is at play is what the opposition can achieve to prevent [the governing party from controlling] two-thirds of the Legislature”, he added.

Having a two-thirds majority in the Legislature would allow the president to govern without opposition, to choose a new Electoral Supreme Court, to modify the framework used to elect judiciary authorities and even to reform the Constitution.

54-year old Morales became president for the first time in 2006 with 54 percent of votes and was reelected in 2009 with 63 percent of votes. Now he hopes to exceed 70 percent of votes. To help his efforts, Morales showcases the economic successes of his administrations, such as the nationalization of the oil, mining and telecommunications industries, which have helped finance assistance programs such as Dignity Rent, for those older than 60, and Juancito Pinto, for school-aged children.

Although Bolivia is considered the poorest country in South America, in 2013 it recorded a 6.5 percent economic growth, among the highest in the region. In 2014, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean anticipates that the Bolivian economy will grow by 6.8 percent
.—Latinamerica Press

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